Article by Claudia Fuentes published in VISION MAGAZINE, May/June 2026.
In the hazelnut, almond, and walnut orchards of south-central Chile, there is no frantic rush of the cherry harvest. There are no charter flights taking off against the clock or prices changing overnight on a Shanghai screen. Instead, there are trees that grow patiently and an industry that advances without fanfare. But beneath this calm, a significant strategic movement in Chilean agro-exports is taking shape: the consolidation of nuts as a second major structural pillar of the sector.
Over the last decade, Chile has built an international reputation as a fruit powerhouse. In that scenario, cherries have been the main protagonist. However, concentration on a single product and a single market has exposed the industry to changes in demand, logistical pressures, and price adjustments.
In this context, “nuts play a different role than fresh fruit. They are more stable crops, with logistics less dependent on critical windows, which gives them strategic value in a more uncertain global scenario,” states Jorge Andrés Ovalle, director of AFRUSEC, a nut advisory firm.
This translates into concrete operational advantages, as explained by José Pablo Correa, nut advisor at Trinuts and founding director of PlanetNuts: "Firstly, management is simpler, with fewer logistical requirements. Secondly, it is a more industrial product, allowing for the standardization of processes and qualities. And thirdly, time: it can be stored and await better market conditions, which gives the producer greater decision-making capacity."
These attributes become even more relevant in a global context marked by logistical and energy volatility. "Today, with rising oil prices, many long-haul export alternatives are out of the market. Nuts, on the other hand, do not require intensive refrigeration and can wait for better freight conditions, which even allows them to take advantage of return loads. This gives them a significant comparative advantage over other products," adds Ovalle.
The phenomenon, however, is not just a response to a specific situation. It also fits into long-term trends, such as the growing demand for healthy foods, plant-based proteins, and functional snacks. In this scenario, the change is not marginal, says the director of AFRUSEC. "The future of national fruit growing will be strongly marked by nuts, which will allow us to move away from dependence on highly perishable products and towards a more stable productive base."
REGIONAL LEADERSHIP AND SECTOR CONSOLIDATION
Chile is currently the undisputed leader in nut exports in Latin America and the main supplier in the southern hemisphere. In addition, it ranks as the second-largest exporter of walnuts worldwide, while also consolidating a significant presence in dried plums and European hazelnuts.
This positioning is based on consistent growth in recent years. José Pablo Correa points out that "this is an industry that is larger than cherries, both in terms of area and projection." He also explains that, within this sector, "hazelnuts lead with about 65,000 hectares and an annual growth of between 4,000 and 5,000 hectares, followed by walnuts, which are around 40,000 hectares and, although they have left their expansion phase behind, remain dynamic through the renewal of orchards and producers who are expanding their area or migrating from other crops to a more stable and known business."
Then there are almonds, with about 11,000 hectares concentrated in the central-northern part of the country, where climatic and water availability restrictions have limited their growth. In this case, the current trend points more to the reorganization and replanting of orchards than to new developments.
The case of the chestnut (which is a nut, but is treated as fresh fruit), with around 3,500 hectares, is beginning to position itself as an attractive alternative, assures Correa. "Its expansion is projected mainly from Ñuble southwards, where it finds better agroclimatic conditions, with lower management costs and good returns, in addition to a high compatibility with hazelnuts, which facilitates its productive integration," he adds.
Together, nuts already form a significant industry for Chile, with exports that, according to sector estimates, exceed US$1.3 billion annually and volumes close to 350,000 tons.
The geographical isolation, its phytosanitary status, and its network of trade agreements have allowed the country to integrate into global supply chains that seek to diversify origins and reduce supply risks. This is complemented by a consolidated technical level over time. "Chile is a mature industry, globally recognized for the quality of its nuts and its agronomic level. We even export knowledge and advice to other countries," highlights the director of Planet Nuts.
Likewise, Jorge Andrés Ovalle assures that "many producers are looking at nuts as a way to diversify risks within fruit farming," consolidating their role as a strategic complement within the productive matrix.
However, significant challenges still persist: rising labor costs, labor shortages, water stress in certain areas, and the need to modernize rural infrastructure. Sustainability, moreover, has ceased to be a differentiating attribute to become a condition for market access.
The real debate is not whether the sector can grow or not. It's how much and at what speed. And, above all, whether the country will be able to capture greater added value, sophisticate its offerings, and avoid falling into the trap of simple surface expansion without a commercial strategy.
HAZELNUTS: SETTING THE STAGE
The European hazelnut industry in Chile has grown steadily over the last decade, driven by new plantations, technical advances, and favorable conditions in the south of the country. In a highly concentrated market—led by Turkey with about 70% of world production, followed by Italy—Chile is positioned as the main producer in the southern hemisphere and the third globally.
Unlike other fruit trees more exposed to volatility, hazelnuts have achieved a more stable expansion. In this context, Camillo Scocco, manager of Agrichile (the agricultural subsidiary of Ferrero Hazelnut Company), points out that "long-term agreements are, in general terms, a factor that has contributed to greater stability in the development of the agricultural sector internationally, in a market marked by productive variability between different origins and seasons. Having more stable relationships throughout the chain allows us to better face this variability and move towards a more consistent supply." The growth of hazelnuts in Chile has been accompanied by the entry into production of new plantations and the technical development of the crop, including better agricultural practices and the good performance of the southern regions.
“This process has also involved significant investments to strengthen the production chain. These include the expansion of processing capacity at the San Gregorio plant — which will reach around 50,000 tons annually — the development of a new plant in La Araucanía, and the increase in storage capacity by approximately 10,000 tons of clean and dry fruit,” details Scocco.
At the same time, he recognizes one of the main challenges as "ensuring adequate coordination in post-harvest, both in delivery scheduling and in compliance with humidity standards, which is key to optimizing processes and the functioning of the chain."
When asked how realistic he believes the scenario is for hazelnuts to double their volume in the coming years and even compete for land with crops like cherries, Scocco is cautious: "Hazelnuts have shown sustained growth in Chile over the last decade, driven by the entry into production of new areas, the technical development of the crop, and favorable productive conditions. Sector estimates suggest that this trend will continue in the coming years, with volumes reflecting this structural growth. In this context, the development of the crop is in line with Chile's consolidation as a relevant player in the global hazelnut market, rather than as a dynamic of direct competition with other crops."
In contrast, Jorge Andrés Ovalle, director of AFRUSEC, focuses on the risks associated with demand concentration and the need to diversify markets: "If we don't open independent markets, we are limited. Today there is a single buyer (Ferrero), which forces us to develop alternative channels, otherwise something similar to what happens with cherries facing China could happen."
DRIED PLUMS: A MAJOR PLAYER
The Chilean dried plum industry has consolidated itself as a world leader, with production close to 100,000 tons, a presence in more than 80 international markets, and a chain involving more than 600 producers, covering over 13,000 hectares and exports exceeding US$300 million. The president of Chileprunes, Pedro Pablo Díaz, highlights its unique and strategic character, reflecting sustained work throughout the value chain. "This is a small but great industry, which has provided enormous returns to Chile and the world. Our agricultural production, harvesting methods, drying, processes, and marketing are unique, delivering a product to the final consumer whose quality is comparable only to the most complex industries. Due to the degrees of specialization, it is a business only for experts."
The dried plum business operates in a highly concentrated global market, where a few players determine the balance between supply and demand. Over the last 15 years, world production has remained around 210,000 metric tons, with a slight decrease projected for the 2025/2026 season. Four countries account for about 95% of the global supply, while Chile and the United States account for approximately 70%, which means that any variation in production has direct effects on the market.
In parallel, China has consolidated as one of the main drivers of demand growth, increasing its imports from about 5,000 tons in 2010 to around 40,000 currently. This dynamism is due, in part, to the strong association of the product with health benefits, especially in the digestive field, as healthy snacks or as ingredients for the
food industry.
Looking ahead, sustained growth is projected, albeit with challenges in volume absorption and quality demands. Production could approach 130,000 tons by 2030. In that scenario, Díaz warns that "we cannot settle for a size 75; we must aim for a larger and sweeter plum for European destinations that are demanding quality and not just natural condition."
ALMONDS: VALUE OVER VOLUME
The almond industry in Chile has positioned itself as a niche player in a highly concentrated global market, dominated by the United States and Australia, where the former alone accounts for about 80% of world production. With less than 1% of the supply, and an annual production of around 8,000 to 10,000 tons in Chile, the sector has opted for a strategy focused on quality, consistency, and access to higher-value markets, as explained by Sebastián Valdés, president of Chile Almonds. "For the same product standard, Chile delivers a much better almond than international competition. This condition allows it to skim markets and choose those that pay best for its quality, which are currently countries that offer tariff advantages for Chile, or importing clients that supply more premium channels."
Asia, specifically China, is a major importer of almonds and the main trading partner of Australia, the world's second-largest exporter, says Valdés. "It's a huge market, but with a lower average price than Chilean exporters currently achieve, which has meant that not as many deals have been closed as expected when the destination opened." He adds: "The large programs of supermarket chains in Europe, the United States, or Asia exceed the total availability of Chilean almonds. That's why it finds its place where they value a more whole almond, with good color and flavor, and are willing to pay a price differential, which, in recent years, has been around 20%."
Regarding organic almonds, our country has few projects, but it has the conditions and knowledge for them, says Valdés. "It is an alternative that is in line with Chile's positioning and, although the bulk of its customers are not regular buyers of organic products, there is a market that far exceeds the existing supply in traditional European countries that are regular buyers of Chilean almonds."
Moving forward, the challenge will be to deepen that differentiation. "It is not only necessary to find varieties that achieve quality and productivity in Chilean soil, but also that can be commercialized at competitive prices with the Non Pareil (the most commercialized almond variety in the world) and that yield the returns expected by the producer," comments the president of Chile Almonds. "Chile has no problem placing the excellent almonds it produces, but it does have difficulty achieving the productivities that attract producers to plant almond trees instead of other species that have been yielding good returns in the central part of the country. Bringing in new varieties can be a solution to improve this insufficient productivity and extend the productive zone in Chile, which would add attractiveness to the almond tree, which already enjoys the nobility of the product, mechanized operation, and a growing market for uses for the most versatile nut that exists," he concludes.
WALNUTS: GROWING AND MAINTAINING QUALITY
The walnut industry in Chile has consolidated as one of the pillars of export fruit farming. While China leads world production, followed by the United States (mainly California), Chile has a presence in more than 70 markets and productions that have exceeded 200,000 tons, according to Chilenut.
Chile currently ranks second as an exporter of inshell walnuts and third in shelled walnuts. In this scenario, the Biobío region plays a significant role, both for its crops and its processing capacity.
Sector figures indicate that total shipments of inshell and shelled walnuts accumulated between January and December 2025 reached a new milestone of US$631 million, increasing by 54% compared to the same period of the previous year, and growing by 43% compared to 2023. This figure is the highest ever recorded for exports of this product. Likewise, last year, the main markets were Germany and India, which each received 16% of the total national shipments. They were followed by Italy (11%), Spain (10%), and the United Arab Emirates (9%).
This diversification has allowed for sustained growth, albeit in a context of increased pressure. Today, the focus is not only on improving productivity per hectare, uniformity of sizes, and advancing towards higher value-added formats, but also on responding to contingencies. "Today, walnuts are very exposed to external factors. On the one hand, any tension in the Strait of Hormuz impacts oil prices and increases global logistics costs. And, on the other hand, what happens in California is crucial: if there is an oversupply or problems placing their production, international prices fall, and that directly affects Chile," declares Jorge Andrés Ovalle, director of AFRUSEC.
PISTACHIOS: A YOUNG PROMISE?
Pistachios frequently appear as one of the most attractive bets within nuts, driven by growing global demand and relatively stable prices. This crop, known as "green gold," has experienced a global boom, with production bordering on one million tons annually, concentrated mainly in the United States, Iran, and Turkey, according to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council. However, in Chile, it is a highly sensitive crop with an alternate bearing behavior, with strong production variations between seasons, which hinders planning and income stability, explains Jorge Andrés Ovalle. "Pistachios are tremendously sensitive, with very irregular production. In California, they have invested a lot to stabilize it, but it is still a complex crop. Unlike that market, where large companies operate with scale and commercial integration, in models comparable to cooperatives like Blue Diamond, and where pistachios also play a strategic role within more diversified agricultural portfolios, these conditions do not exist in Chile. In California, agricultural insurance systems also allow less profitable but more resilient crops against climatic events to be part of a risk management strategy, something that does not happen locally."
To this is added an agroclimatic gap, as warned by José Pablo Correa of Planetnut. "We have several clients who have asked us to evaluate conditions for planting. I myself go to California to see some pistachios, but in Chile it is difficult for it to develop, because we do not have the necessary climatic conditions. Pistachios need a very specific combination of cold and heat, and in Chile that combination does not occur: where there is heat, there is a lack of cold, and where there is cold, there is a lack of heat. This directly affects the opening of the fruit. In Chile there are about 200 hectares, with many micro-trials, but I do not see significant development in the short term," he concludes.
AND FIGS? (our addition)
On the fringes of the current productive matrix, figs are beginning to emerge as one of the most auspicious and dynamic promises for Chile's export portfolio. Although traditionally considered a niche crop, the remarkable agroclimatic conditions of the country's central and central-northern regions—which emulate the Mediterranean climates of major global producers—offer an ideal scenario for obtaining high-quality fruit, both in terms of size and sugar content. The industry views this fruit with growing optimism, driven by an international market that demands stable volumes of dried figs and functional by-products for the premium food industry.
The definitive fulfillment of this promise, however, requires replicating the technical rigor and logistical standardization that have already consolidated dried plums in the major leagues. Local producers are making decisive progress in the mechanization of harvesting and drying processes, key factors for ensuring the homogeneity demanded by European and Asian markets. If this pace of mechanization is maintained and a solid commercial articulation is achieved, figs are poised to significantly expand their acreage in the coming seasons, transforming into a highly profitable axis and a fundamental pillar of national fruit diversification.
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